Game Preview: Clemson
Previewing Iowa's opening round game against Clemson
Iowa is back in the tournament after two year absence and drew a pretty favorable first round game against Clemson.
The Tigers finished sixth in the ACC, but at one point in the season they were 20-4 and 10-1 in conference play.
image via KenPom
As you can see they faded down the stretch and the only win they have against a team in the KenPom top 25 is at home against Louisville.
That should give Iowa fans some hope of getting by the Tigers and setting up a matchup with Florida in the second round.
Even though the Hawks faded down the stretch, it’s now tournament time, so let’s hope they can flip the switch and reach their potential when it matters most.
Let’s dive into the opening round game against Clemson.
Clemson
The Tigers were dealt a huge blow in the ACC tournament. Their star center Carter Welling tore his ACL and is out for the rest of the season.
Welling was second on the team averaging 10.2 points per game, but more importantly was their best rebounder and interior defender.
image via KenPom
Losing Welling is a big problem for the Tigers because they already didn’t have much size to begin with.
With Welling out, RJ Godfrey is the main guy that Iowa will have to slow down.
Godfrey led the Tigers in scoring averaging 11.2 points per game and is really good at getting to the rim. He does not shoot threes, but is very good at getting the rim where he is shooting about 65%.
Here is the problem though, Godfrey is much better in small sample sizes rather than being heavily used in the offense.
You can see here that his offensive rating goes way down the more he is used in the offense.
image via Barttorvik
Clemson doesn’t have much scoring in their backcourt, so someone from the Tigers is going to have to step up on Friday.
Jestin Porter may be that guy for Clemson, but he hasn’t really shown much during the season.
Porter only averaged 9.6 points per game and is the main three point shooter for the Tigers. However, he only averaged 34.3% from behind the arc. In fact, during conference play he shot under 30% from three point range.
Dillon Hunter is the other option at guard, but he was very rarely used in the offense this season. He only took 15% of Clemson’s shots when he was on the floor and like Porter, he is a poor three point shooter only hitting 33.7% on the season.
Nick Davidson will be the most likely replacement for Welling at center.
Davidson did average 9.1 points per game mainly off the bench and shot a very high percentage down low.
He scored 17 points against North Carolina in the ACC Tournament with Welling out of the lineup. If he can’t make up for Welling’s production down low then Clemson is really going to struggle on Friday.
Keys to Victory
First off, Iowa needs to win the battle down low.
Obviously without Welling, Clemson is weak in the paint. In fact, the Tigers are taking a really high percentage of three pointers, but obviously are not hitting them at a high percentage.
image via Barttorvik
The reason Iowa lost their last game to to Ohio State and their biggest weakness has been defending at the rim. The Hawks simply do not have the height down low when they face really good front courts.
If Clemson with a backup center can dominate Iowa down low, then we have a big problem.
Next, Iowa needs to win the free throw battle.
The thorn in the Hawks side throughout Big Ten play has been free throws. Iowa is 12-0 this season when they shoot more free throws than their opponent and 9-13 when they don’t.
Clemson has a pretty high free throw rate and has a very high percentage of their points coming from the free throw line.
image via KenPom
Finally, Iowa cannot go on a big scoring drought.
What has killed the Hawks this season is allowing the opponent to go one big runs and completely take them out of the game. It happened against Ohio State when the Buckeyes went on
This is a chart from February showing the amount of 10-0 or better runs that teams have gone or allowed per game. I am sure an updated chart from Evan Miya would show that Iowa is one of the worst teams in the tournament allowing these types of runs.
It’s less of a defensive issue and more of an offensive issue. Because Iowa is so dependent on Bennett Stritz when team take him away it’s almost as if Iowa doesn’t know what to do offensively.
This is a game that is going to be played at a very slow pace and Iowa is going to have to win it in the half court. Because of that slow pace, the Hawks simply cannot afford to fall behind.
Conclusion
Despite being the lower seed, Iowa is the favorite to get by Clemson and set up a huge game against Florida.
Iowa got a break getting to face the Tigers without their best player, but they must take advantage of it by dominating Clemson in the paint.
Despite the bad run down the stretch, Iowa is still a top 25 team in the country by almost very advanced analytics site, while Clemson is ranked near the 40s.
This will probably be a big game for Bennett Stirtz because he has the size advantage over both of Clemson’s guards, but if the Tigers decide to double him a lot, someone else will need to step up.
Stay tuned tomorrow where I will be simulating the NCAA Tournament, similar to what I did for the Big Ten Tournament.
Taking the average from KenPom, Barttorvik, and Haslametrics the projected final score for Friday’s game is: Iowa 68 - Clemson 63. (Adjustment made for Carter Welling being out)
