Game Preview: Florida
Previewing Iowa's second round game against the Gators
It’s put up or shut up time for the Hawks. Their bad run down the stretch run of the season put them in a position where they would have to face a number one seed in the second round.
They did get a fortunate draw because Florida is the weakest of the four number one seeds, but the defending champions are no slouch.
Just ask Prairie View A&M’s coach Byron Smith:
image via CBS Sports College Basketball
The Gators are one of the biggest most physical teams in the country, but they can be beaten.
They have seven losses on the season and if the Hawks can put together a complete game they have a shot at pulling off an upset.
We have to remember, Iowa has come close to beating top teams like Michigan, Iowa State, and Purdue this year, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they win this game.
However, it’s going to take monumental performance from everyone, especially on the defensive end of the floor to knockout the defending champions.
Let’s dive into Sunday’s game against the Gators.
Florida
The Gators are the defending champions and the reason they are the fourth best team in the country is because of the size and scoring options they have down low.
Thomas Haugh leads the Gators with 17 points per game and finished with the sixth best offensive rating in the SEC this season.
As you can see, he’s very good around the rim, but if you can push him outside of the paint and force him to shoot anything other than a layup, his field goal percentage goes way down.
Thomas Haugh Stats
image via Barttorvik
Haugh is also averaging 6.2 rebounds per game and shoots almost 77% from the free throw line, so if he starts to dominate, Iowa is in big trouble.
The other big man Iowa needs to slow down is Alex Condon.
The Australian is an absolute force on both the offensive and defensive glass averaging 7.5 rebounds per game.
He not only shoots 65.8% on shots at the rim, but can also step out in the midrange and shoots 55% from there as well.
He also draws fouls at one of the highest rates in the SEC, which is problem for the Hawks given their extremely high free throw rate allowed.
Florida’s most physical and difficult big man to slow down by far though is Rueben Chinyelu.
The 6’10” 265 pound Nigerian is averaging 11.2 rebounds per game and has the second best defensive and eighth best offensive rebounding percentage in the nation.
Rueben Chinyelu Stats
image via KenPom
I’ll put it this way, it’s more likely than not Cam Manyawu will be guarding him and if can’t keep him in check, Iowa is going to get blown out.
Xaivian Lee is the main guard for Florida and is the one assisting all of their big men. He does have the seventh highest assist rate in the SEC, but he is someone Iowa needs to have shoot the ball a lot from distance in this game.
He’s attempted 189 three pointers this season, but is only shooting 28.6%. He is shooting well over 60% from two point range so you cannot let him get to the basket with regularity.
The other guard for Florida is Boogie Fland. He’s very similar to Lee in that he has a high assist rate and shoots a high percentage from two point range, but is a really bad three point shooter.
Fland on the season has attempted 119 three pointers, but is only hitting 24.6% of them.
Florida only has one good three point shooter and it’s someone that comes off the bench.
Slovenian Urban Klavzar is hitting 40.5% of his three point shots overall this season and was even better in SEC play hitting 44%. Florida is an incredibly dominant team down low, but if you can keep them in check, you also have to run Klavzer off the three point line.
Keys to Victory
There is really only one key to this game, Iowa cannot get dominated down low.
Florida is the best team in the country inside with their size and scoring. Not only that, but they also rebound the ball better than anyone else in this tournament.
Florida Stats
image via KenPom
When you look a little deeper into the field goal percentages allowed inside, you’ll see that Iowa is at a complete disadvantage in this game.
image via Barttorvik
The problem for the Hawks is their height and size. Alvaro Folgueiras is the tallest guy we have at 6’10” and as we’ve all seen this season is not a very good defender in the paint.
With Florida having three guys 6’10” or taller who can all score consistently around the rim, that poses a huge issue for the Hawks who are allowing one of the highest field goal percentage at the rim.
Now, with that being said, we’ve seen Iowa make up for that lack of size recently when they almost upset Michigan holding them to only 16-28 on shots at the rim.
It will take another defensive performance like that for Iowa to have a chance of pulling off this upset.
Going along those same lines, Iowa needs to keep Florida off the offensive glass.
Overall this season, Iowa has done a really nice job on the defensive glass, but this is going to be a new challenge.
image via KenPom
As you can see, Florida has the second best defensive rebounding percentage in the country, but there were only five games in Big Ten play where the Hawks allowed double digit offensive rebounds.
The Michigan game is probably the closest comparison of a team Iowa has faced that is not only similar, but at the level of Florida. In that game, Iowa did only allow eight offensive rebounds, if the Hawks can keep the Gators under double digit offensive rebounds, that will be a huge win.
Next, Iowa needs to force a lot of turnovers.
I went through and looked to see what were some common themes in Florida’s seven losses this season.
Two things stuck out: their opponents forced them into shooting a lot of threes and they turned them over a ton.
Florida Stats in Losses
Florida is susceptible to turning it over at a high rate and like I’ve already mentioned they only have one good three point shooter.
What all of these teams did is limit the Gators at the rim and forced them into taking a large number of three pointers, which is actually something the Hawks have done a good job of this season when they’ve played elite opponents.
Iowa also has the 15th best turnover percentage in the country, so if they can really take advantage of these two things, they have a great chance of pulling off an upset.
Finally, Iowa needs to hit a high percentage of three pointers.
I showed this chart in my Clemson review last night, but the Hawks did not shooting the ball well in Big Ten play or against the Tigers in the opening round.
Iowa Three Point Shooting in Big Ten play
When you consider the Division I average is about 34%, we basically have a team of average to below average three point shooters.
With the size Florida has down low, they are only allowing a 51.9% field goal percentage on shots at the rim. So that means Iowa is more than likely going to be forced into shooting a lot of threes in this game and if they are not falling it’s going to be a long night.
Conclusion
Unlike the other three number one seeds, Florida does have a couple of clear weaknesses that the Hawks can take advantage of.
It’s going to be tough and physical in the paint, so Iowa better come ready to play because the Gators can really wear you down with their front court as the game goes along.
Of course, not only does Iowa need to avoid getting dominated down low, but also there cannot be a massive free throw discrepancy, which has happened far too many times this season.
Florida also loves to get out an run because they are playing at the 29th fastest tempo in the country, while Iowa plays at fourth slowest pace in the nation.
The Hawks need to keep this game in the half court, force a lot of turnovers, and turn this into a three point shooting contest.
It also doesn’t need to be said, but Bennett Stirtz needs to take over this game. Iowa is not going get much scoring in the paint so he needs to show why he’s one of the best players in the country and dominate Florida’s guards.
If they can do that, we can stun the nation and knock off the defending champs.
Taking the average from KenPom, Barttorvik, and Haslametrics the projected final score for Sunday’s game is: Florida 77- Iowa 69.
